Hi Punters,

The inconsistency from teams this year and/or just a real lack of effort from some teams (Brisbane, Carlton to name a couple) is making life difficult for the rating system to pick up some profitable rounds. I’ll definitely stick at it though and with any luck as the season progresses the systems in place should improve along with the effort of some teams. For this week some of the games I like are collingwood, adelaide and fremantle. Collingwood are in good nick and I can see them possibly giving geelong a touch up for the friday night feature. Whilst the crows are on the road gold coast are likely to be missing 1/3rd of their best 22 – Ablett, Swallow, Martin, O’Meara, Malceski to injury – Matera, Bennell, Mckenzie to a team imposed suspension and May to a terrible league imposed suspension. Given all this missing talent the crows should demolish gold coast and if they don’t it is a missed opportunity. Finally fremantle are just in ripping form, at home and vsing a bombers team who has to travel and lacked intensity lately.

In terms of the games i’m concerned about are carlton, west coast and richmond. I’m concerned about carlton and richmond simply due to how pathetic they have been so far this year. They’ve both lost games they shouldn’t have, lacked any heart, passion or fire and are frustrating to watch. The problem is given all of this they are still capable squads at times and could make a mockery of me this week and win both games. My west coast concern has a few factors – they are playing a port power team back in form and at adelaide oval. Also they are missing 2 key defenders for the season AND could be missing they leading goal scorer and monster tall forward Kennedy. Every chance that west coast could get thumped however time will tell, here are the weeks bets:

Line Bets (Chosen team underlined)
$20 on Adelaide Crows -38.5 vs Gold Coast Suns @ $1.91 (Centrebet)
$40 on Carlton Blues -24.5 vs Brisbane Lions @ $1.91 (Centrebet)
$40 on Collingwood Magpies -6.5 vs Geelong Cats @ $2.00 (Topsport)
$40 on Fremantle Dockers -24.5 vs Essendon Bombers @ $2.00 (Topsport)
$20 on Hawthorn Hawks -27.5 vs GWS Giants @ $2.00 (Topsport)
$20 on Richmond Tigers +13.5 vs North Melbourne Kangaroos @ $2.00 (Topsport)
$20 on Sydney Swans -30.5 vs Melbourne Demons @ $2.00 (Topsport)
$20 on West Coast Eagles +32.5 vs Port Power @ $2.00 (Topsport)
$40 on Western Bulldogs -24.5 vs St Kilda Saints @ $2.00 (Topsport)

Head to Head Bets (Chosen team underlined)
$40 on Collingwood Magpies vs Geelong Cats @ $1.714 (Pinnacle)
$20 on Fremantle Dockers vs Essendon Bombers @ $1.268 (Pinnacle)
$20 on Richmond Tigers vs North Melbourne Kangaroos @ $2.85 (Centrebet)

Personal Bets
I’ve decided to place some personal bets this round and it means my betting for the week will heavily focus on collingwood beating geelong by more than a goal. I’ve decided to place $20 on collingwood -6.5 with topsport on top of the $40 already wagered on them. I’ve also placed a multi with centrebet of collingwood -6.5 multi’d with fremantle -25.5 for odds of $3.65. I like collingwood quite a bit as there form now stacks up over a number of weeks and they continue to impress. Geelong are a lot better at home compared to the MCG and with injuries, form concerns and some of their more experienced players missing I just get the feeling that a young collingwood side will rise to the friday night occasion and take care of geelong comfortably.

I’ve also included fremantle in the multi simply because essendon’s form doesn’t quite stack up. They struggled to keep up with collingwoods intensity on the traditional anzac day feature and only just beat melbourne last week again struggling to keep up with the oppositions intensity. Flying over to perth and trying to match fremantle’s intensity will be a much harder test then those two games and with fremantle firing on all cylinders at the moment I can see them getting the job done by 6+ goals.

Happy Punting!